The recession in the UK has worsened in the first three months
of the year, but this should prove to have been the worst of the
quarterly falls in GDP, the CBI has said.
The UK’s leading business organisation also said that it
expected the recession to be more tempered in the second half of
2009, even though the recovery will be “slow and fragile”, with GDP
growth resuming only in the spring of 2010.
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“It is fair to say we are past the worst, but it is too early to
call this a recovery,” said Ian McCafferty, chief economist at the
CBI.
“Firms have been running down their stocks of completed goods,
and that is having a real impact on output, jobs and investment,”
added Richard Lambert, director general of the CBI. “The recession
is by no means over, but we see a return to very weak growth by
spring 2010.”
In its latest economic forecast, the CBI also said that
businesses would continue to scale back on investment in the face
of the recession, with business investment expected to shrink by
9.3 percent over 2009 and a further 3.4 percent in 2010.
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